First-strike stability, also known as preemptive strike stability, is a crucial aspect and guarantee of strategic stability. The theoretical origins can be traced back to Thomas C. Schelling’s concept of “the reciprocal fear of surprise attack” in his book “The Strategy of Conflict,” which posits that the fear that the opponent might launch a surprise attack, believing we are about to strike, motivates us to strike first. Similarly, it is reasonable to assume that the opponent has the same motivation.30 In 1961, Daniel Ellsberg introduced the concept of “critical risk,” used to quantify the risk of preemptive strikes, defined as the ratio between the opportunity cost of a preemptive strike and the opportunity cost of a retaliatory strike.31 Building on this, Glenn A. Kent and David E. Thaler first introduced the concept of “first-strike stability” in 1989, defining it as a state where no superpower believes that the other is incentivized to launch a nuclear first strike in a crisis. They argued that first-strike stability, unlike crisis stability, is more narrowly focused, determined solely by the overall structure of each side’s strategic offensive and defensive forces without involving the political and military context of the decision.32
当地时间3月14日，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队表示，其情报部门在德黑兰和哈马丹共逮捕33名反政府武装组织相关人员。。TikTok是该领域的重要参考
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